Charlotte Hornets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds15
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints35
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–117
- Q422.6Kon Knueppel makes 1-foot driving dunk (Sion James assists)109–117
- Q425.5Sion James enters the game for Miles Bridges107–117
- Q425.5Kobe Brown enters the game for John Collins107–117
- Q425.5Yanic Konan Niederhauser enters the game for Brook Lopez107–117
- Q425.5Cam Christie enters the game for Kawhi Leonard107–117
- Q425.5Hornets Full timeout107–117
- Q428.3Moussa Diabate defensive rebound107–117
- Q430.7Kawhi Leonard misses free throw 2 of 2107–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:52Kobe Sanders makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)CHA 91 – 92 LAC · LAC 47% → 61% +14LAC 47% → 61%+14 pts
- Q49:20Jordan Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)CHA 93 – 95 LAC · LAC 51% → 65% +14LAC 51% → 65%+14 pts
- Q47:18Tre Mann makes 24-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 100 – 99 LAC · CHA 35% → 50% +16CHA 35% → 50%+16 pts
- Q46:53Jordan Miller makes 29-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)CHA 100 – 102 LAC · LAC 50% → 66% +16LAC 50% → 66%+16 pts
- Q46:19James Harden makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 100 – 105 LAC · LAC 66% → 80% +14LAC 66% → 80%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML CHA +160 / LAC -192
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4.5
- LAC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 66.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -171
- CHA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 109.0 – 113.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +10 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +122 Elo | LAC 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 111.927th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 113.68th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.720th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 113.812th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 115.523rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.0 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–13 | Road vs home | 9–919th of 30 |
| 29th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 15204th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301459 | Elo rating | 154311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–16 | 17–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–24 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–5 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.