LA Clippers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints26
- James HardenAssists7
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Pistons- Duncan RobinsonPoints20
- Ausar ThompsonAssists6
- Tolu SmithRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–92
- Q42.1John Collins defensive rebound98–92
- Q45.3John Collins blocks Ronald Holland II 's 29-foot three point pullup jump shot98–92
- Q49.3Ivica Zubac makes free throw 2 of 298–92
- Q49.3Ivica Zubac makes free throw 1 of 297–92
- Q49.3Javonte Green personal take foul96–92
- Q412.2Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson96–92
- Q412.2Ronald Holland II enters the game for Daniss Jenkins96–92
- Q413.7Kawhi Leonard vs. Javonte Green96–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:21Jordan Miller makes 24-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)LAC 82 – 84 DET · LAC 25% → 39% +14LAC 25% → 39%+14 pts
- Q44:17John Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 85 – 89 DET · LAC 11% → 24% +13LAC 11% → 24%+13 pts
- Q42:59James Harden makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotLAC 89 – 90 DET · LAC 26% → 41% +15LAC 26% → 41%+15 pts
- Q42:43Daniss Jenkins makes driving layupLAC 90 – 92 DET · DET 50% → 67% +17DET 50% → 67%+17 pts
- Q41:23Ivica Zubac makes 4-foot dunk (James Harden assists)LAC 95 – 92 DET · LAC 62% → 82% +20LAC 62% → 82%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML LAC -105 / DET -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.7 pts
- DET: Elo 64.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- LAC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.0 – 107.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | −43 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +106 Elo | DET 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 118.59th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 111.64th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +6.94th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 115.19th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 108.32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 102.513th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–14 | Road vs home | 14–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 148030th of 30 |
| 12th of 301532 | Elo rating | 16163rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–21 | 21–16 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–1 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.