Charlotte Hornets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints28
- Brandon MillerAssists5
- Kon KnueppelRebounds11
Warriors- De'Anthony MeltonPoints24
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists7
- Quinten PostRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–136
- Q48.7Quinten Post defensive rebound116–136
- Q415.5Pat Connaughton misses 2-foot two point shot116–136
- Q430.4Buddy Hield makes driving layup116–136
- Q450.5Pat Spencer defensive rebound116–134
- Q452.0Pat Connaughton misses free throw 2 of 2116–134
- Q452.0Pat Connaughton makes free throw 1 of 2116–134
- Q452.0Quinten Post loose ball foul115–134
- Q452.0Hornets offensive team rebound115–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:26Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 73 – 78 GS · CHA 16% → 22% +6CHA 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q36:06Draymond Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)CHA 79 – 85 GS · GS 73% → 81% +8GS 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q35:27Gary Payton II makes 24-foot three point jumperCHA 81 – 88 GS · GS 76% → 83% +7GS 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q48:10Kon Knueppel makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 105 – 113 GS · CHA 5% → 11% +5CHA 5% → 11%+5 pts
- Q47:54Draymond Green makes 26-foot three point jumperCHA 105 – 116 GS · GS 90% → 95% +5GS 90% → 95%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML CHA +240 / GS -298
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2.5
- GS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- GS: Elo 60.8%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- GS -255
- CHA +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 114.5 – 122.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | −28 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −49 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +76 Elo | GS 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 115.819th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 113.28th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +2.511th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 113.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 111.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.419th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 308–14 | Road vs home | 15–67th of 30 |
| 29th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 17th of 301472 | Elo rating | 15657th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−28 Elo- Jimmy Butler III personal−49 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–17 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–5 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.