Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints19
- Caleb LoveAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds9
Warriors- De'Anthony MeltonPoints23
- Stephen CurryAssists11
- Draymond GreenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–119
- Q421.1Warriors defensive team rebound97–119
- Q423.7Rayan Rupert misses 23-foot three point jumper97–119
- Q435.2Quinten Post makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)97–119
- Q449.4Caleb Love makes two point shot97–116
- Q449.4Caleb Love offensive rebound95–116
- Q451.5Yang Hansen misses 22-foot three point jumper95–116
- Q41:10Will Richard makes free throw 2 of 295–116
- Q41:10Will Richard makes free throw 1 of 295–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:36Draymond Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)POR 2 – 7 GS · GS 82% → 85% +4GS 82% → 85%+4 pts
- Q16:57Donovan Clingan makes 24-foot three pointerPOR 11 – 12 GS · POR 16% → 21% +4POR 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q15:54Moses Moody makes 24-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)POR 11 – 17 GS · GS 82% → 86% +4GS 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q15:10Moses Moody makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)POR 11 – 20 GS · GS 86% → 90% +3GS 86% → 90%+3 pts
- Q14:39Gui Santos makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)POR 13 – 23 GS · GS 87% → 91% +3GS 87% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -10.5
- ML POR +360 / GS -470
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- GS: Elo 67.0%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -379
- POR +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 107.5 – 118.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +13 | POR: Missing Deni Avdija −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +123 Elo | GS 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.419th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 113.69th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.5 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.419th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 13–69th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 19th of 301468 | Elo rating | 154810th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+7 Elo- Deni Avdija lower back soreness−39 Elo
Warriors
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–18 | 18–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 23–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–7 GS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Dec 14GS 131 @ POR 136Picked GS 64%Miss
- Nov 21POR 127 @ GS 123Picked GS 77%Miss
- Oct 24GS 119 @ POR 139Picked GS 58%Miss
- Apr 11GS 103 @ POR 86Picked GS 89%Hit
- Mar 10POR 120 @ GS 130Picked GS 84%Hit
- Oct 23GS 140 @ POR 104Picked GS 71%Hit
- Apr 11GS 100 @ POR 92Picked GS 77%Hit
- Dec 23POR 106 @ GS 126Picked GS 65%Hit