New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints25
- Deni AvdijaAssists4
- Donovan ClinganRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–114
- Q415.8Toumani Camara makes driving dunk123–114
- Q416.8Josh Hart bad pass
turnover (Toumani Camara steals)123–112
- Q427.4OG Anunoby defensive rebound123–112
- Q430.6Caleb Love misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot123–112
- Q435.1OG Anunoby makes 1-foot dunk (Miles McBride assists)123–112
- Q442.5Knicks Full timeout121–112
- Q447.1Jalen Brunson defensive rebound121–112
- Q448.8Shaedon Sharpe misses driving layup121–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:21Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 99 – 97 POR · NY 52% → 66% +14NY 52% → 66%+14 pts
- Q47:41Caleb Love makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)NY 101 – 100 POR · POR 25% → 38% +14POR 25% → 38%+14 pts
- Q45:24Shaedon Sharpe makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Donovan Clingan assists)NY 103 – 104 POR · POR 39% → 51% +12POR 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q44:15OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 106 – 104 POR · NY 48% → 68% +20NY 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q43:50Miles McBride makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (OG Anunoby assists)NY 109 – 104 POR · NY 69% → 85% +16NY 69% → 85%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML NY -218 / POR +180
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- NY: Elo 51.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -192
- POR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 118.0 – 112.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | +49 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +10 Elo | NY 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 116.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 118.724th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −2.422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 111.723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 114.017th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.6 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 10–917th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15213rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301567 | Elo rating | 147718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–20 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–0 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.