New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints27
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds14
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Dillon BrooksRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–112
- Q40.8Knicks offensive team rebound107–112
- Q40.8Miles McBride misses heave jump shot107–112
- Q40.8Dillon Brooks makes free throw 2 of 2107–112
- Q40.8Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 2107–111
- Q40.8Mikal Bridges personal take foul107–110
- Q42.2OG Anunoby makes free throw 3 of 3107–110
- Q42.2Miles McBride enters the game for Mitchell Robinson106–110
- Q42.2Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Miles McBride106–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:47OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mitchell Robinson assists)NY 92 – 96 PHX · NY 19% → 31% +12NY 19% → 31%+12 pts
- Q46:11OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 95 – 99 PHX · NY 16% → 29% +13NY 16% → 29%+13 pts
- Q44:10Mitchell Robinson makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 99 – 101 PHX · NY 24% → 37% +12NY 24% → 37%+12 pts
- Q42:00Devin Booker makes 16-foot step back jumpshotNY 101 – 103 PHX · PHX 50% → 69% +20PHX 50% → 69%+20 pts
- Q41:16Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)NY 101 – 106 PHX · PHX 74% → 94% +21PHX 74% → 94%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -118 / PHX -102
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- NY 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- NY: Elo 42.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -107
- PHX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 115.5 – 114.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +14 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +53 Elo | PHX 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 114.821st of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 112.46th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +2.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 111.08th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.8 | Pace | 100.921st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 12–56th of 30 |
| 24th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15107th of 30 |
| 8th of 301573 | Elo rating | 15837th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–19 | 26–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 17–16 | 14–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 22–16 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–1 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.