New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints25
- Josh HartAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds20
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints32
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–126
- Q419.4Pacome Dadiet makes driving layup (Tyler Kolek assists)113–126
- Q422.0Tyler Kolek defensive rebound111–126
- Q425.5Quinten Post misses 23-foot three point jumper111–126
- Q437.0Gary Payton II defensive rebound111–126
- Q437.0Mohamed Diawara misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot111–126
- Q451.7Brandin Podziemski makes running layup111–126
- Q454.0Tyler Kolek bad pass
turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)111–124
- Q457.0Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound111–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:56De'Anthony Melton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)NY 46 – 47 GS · GS 61% → 68% +7GS 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q24:38Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)NY 48 – 50 GS · GS 63% → 70% +7GS 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q23:02Brandin Podziemski makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Al Horford assists)NY 52 – 55 GS · GS 65% → 72% +7GS 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q22:05Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 57 – 57 GS · NY 28% → 35% +8NY 28% → 35%+8 pts
- Q310:53Quinten Post makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)NY 63 – 65 GS · GS 61% → 69% +8GS 61% → 69%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML NY +215 / GS -265
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- GS: Elo 71.0%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -229
- NY +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 110.5 – 118.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −65 | +14 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +155 Elo | GS 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 115.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 113.28th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 110.87th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.519th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 14–68th of 30 |
| 25th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 8th of 301558 | Elo rating | 15597th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–18 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–18 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–3 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.