New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints19
- Miles McBrideAssists6
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds11
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- Russell WestbrookAssists11
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–112
- Q416.4Mohamed Diawara out of bounds lost ball turnover101–112
- Q425.5Russell Westbrook makes 21-foot pullup jump shot (Precious Achiuwa assists)101–112
- Q448.2Guerschon Yabusele makes 4-foot layup (Tyler Kolek assists)101–110
- Q455.4Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound99–110
- Q455.4Precious Achiuwa misses 26-foot three point jumper99–110
- Q41:21Tyler Kolek makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot99–110
- Q41:27Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound96–110
- Q41:28Zach LaVine misses 23-foot three point jumper96–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:37Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Malik Monk assists)NY 15 – 30 SAC · SAC 50% → 57% +7SAC 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q28:49Josh Hart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 24 – 41 SAC · NY 27% → 34% +7NY 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q24:44Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three pointer (Zach LaVine assists)NY 32 – 48 SAC · SAC 60% → 68% +8SAC 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q21:26Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)NY 36 – 53 SAC · SAC 66% → 74% +7SAC 66% → 74%+7 pts
- Q27.1Zach LaVine makes 22-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)NY 40 – 56 SAC · SAC 65% → 73% +8SAC 65% → 73%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -10.5
- ML NY -455 / SAC +350
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6
- NY 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- NY: Elo 72.4%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -369
- SAC +369 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 120.0 – 109.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −47 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +168 Elo | NY 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 76.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 110.229th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 121.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −11.029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 107.330th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 118.128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.717th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 15th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 7–1326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15451st of 30 |
| 7th of 301577 | Elo rating | 142824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–20 | 15–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 14–23 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17 | 18–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–0 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.