Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints29
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds9
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints42
- Aaron GordonAssists11
- Aaron GordonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–121
- Q40.1Nuggets offensive team rebound115–121
- Q40.1Bruce Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper115–121
- Q48.5Kyshawn George makes 27-foot three pointer115–121
- Q417.0Peyton Watson out of bounds bad pass turnover112–121
- Q419.0Bub Carrington bad pass
turnover (Peyton Watson steals)112–121
- Q419.3Wizards Full timeout112–121
- Q419.3Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2112–121
- Q419.3Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2112–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:28Kyshawn George makes free throw 2 of 2WSH 88 – 83 DEN · WSH 38% → 55% +17WSH 38% → 55%+17 pts
- Q44:44Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 102 – 105 DEN · DEN 60% → 78% +17DEN 60% → 78%+17 pts
- Q42:57Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)WSH 107 – 110 DEN · DEN 58% → 80% +22DEN 58% → 80%+22 pts
- Q42:33Khris Middleton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)WSH 110 – 110 DEN · WSH 19% → 42% +23WSH 19% → 42%+23 pts
- Q42:12Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 110 – 113 DEN · DEN 57% → 82% +25DEN 57% → 82%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -10.5
- ML WSH +370 / DEN -485
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -11.5
- DEN 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 86.6%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -390
- WSH +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 108.5 – 119.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1313 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −7 | −93 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +324 Elo | DEN 86.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 83.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 84.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 122.61st of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 117.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.3 | Margin | +5.35th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.4 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.3 | Pace | 100.225th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–17 | Road vs home | 11–611th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148725th of 30 |
| 30th of 301313 | Elo rating | 16343rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–25 | 25–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 16–13 |
| Underdog | 14–23 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.