Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints19
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Alex SarrRebounds15
Suns- Royce O'NealePoints19
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Royce O'NealeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–112
- Q419.4shot clock turnover93–112
- Q434.5Tristan Vukcevic makes free throw 2 of 293–112
- Q434.5Tristan Vukcevic makes free throw 1 of 292–112
- Q434.5Jordan Goodwin personal foul91–112
- Q444.5Isaiah Livers makes 14-foot step back jumpshot91–112
- Q41:01Tristan Vukcevic makes 2-foot running dunk91–110
- Q41:03Jordan Goodwin bad pass
turnover (Tristan Vukcevic steals)89–110
- Q41:08Anthony Gill enters the game for Bub Carrington89–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:25Tre Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)WSH 3 – 2 PHX · WSH 12% → 15% +3WSH 12% → 15%+3 pts
- Q110:48Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)WSH 5 – 5 PHX · PHX 82% → 86% +4PHX 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q136.6Jordan Goodwin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)WSH 26 – 29 PHX · PHX 83% → 87% +4PHX 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q11.9Grayson Allen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)WSH 28 – 32 PHX · PHX 84% → 88% +4PHX 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q210:50Ryan Dunn makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)WSH 30 – 37 PHX · PHX 88% → 91% +3PHX 88% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -15.5
- ML WSH +600 / PHX -900
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -12
- PHX 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- PHX: Elo 87.6%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -630
- WSH +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 107.5 – 123.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1325 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | +9 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +340 Elo | PHX 87.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 86.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 87.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 114.722nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.3 | Points allowed | 112.35th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.0 | Margin | +2.59th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 113.513th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.4 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.5 | Pace | 100.721st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 304–14 | Road vs home | 13–55th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15107th of 30 |
| 30th of 301325 | Elo rating | 15896th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–22 | 27–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 14–2 |
| Underdog | 14–20 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18 | 16–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–5 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.