Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints19
- Bub CarringtonAssists9
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds8
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints26
- Russell WestbrookAssists6
- Dylan CardwellRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–128
- Q49.0shot clock turnover115–128
- Q433.4Zach LaVine defensive rebound115–128
- Q433.4Zach LaVine blocks AJ Johnson 's 6-foot driving layup115–128
- Q436.5AJ Johnson defensive rebound115–128
- Q439.8Zach LaVine misses 19-foot pullup jump shot115–128
- Q454.9Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound115–128
- Q458.8Anthony Gill misses 24-foot three point jumper115–128
- Q41:05Anthony Gill enters the game for Alex Sarr115–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:03Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)WSH 57 – 63 SAC · SAC 72% → 79% +7SAC 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q21:29Nique Clifford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)WSH 59 – 66 SAC · SAC 75% → 81% +6SAC 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q39:03Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)WSH 68 – 72 SAC · WSH 19% → 26% +7WSH 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q38:53DeMar DeRozan makes layup (Russell Westbrook assists)WSH 68 – 74 SAC · SAC 72% → 79% +7SAC 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q38:12Tre Johnson makes 24-foot three pointerWSH 72 – 77 SAC · WSH 16% → 23% +7WSH 16% → 23%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -7.5
- ML WSH +215 / SAC -265
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -7
- SAC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- SAC: Elo 76.1%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- SAC -229
- WSH +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.5 – 121.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1318 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +11 | WSH: Missing Khris Middleton −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +201 Elo | SAC 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 110.229th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 120.726th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.3 | Margin | −10.529th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 107.430th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 117.727th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.716th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–16 | Road vs home | 8–1325th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15431st of 30 |
| 30th of 301318 | Elo rating | 144722nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−25 Elo- Khris Middleton right knee−18 Elo
Kings
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–24 | 16–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 14–22 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.