Washington Wizards at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints23
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds11
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints33
- James HardenAssists8
- Jordan MillerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–119
- Q411.8shot clock turnover105–119
- Q433.6Jordan Miller defensive rebound105–119
- Q436.0Will Riley misses two point shot105–119
- Q446.7Cam Christie makes 15-foot two point shot105–119
- Q41:02Tristan Vukcevic kicked ball violation105–117
- Q41:07Tristan Vukcevic enters the game for Marvin Bagley III105–117
- Q41:07Anthony Gill enters the game for Khris Middleton105–117
- Q41:07Malaki Branham enters the game for Kyshawn George105–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:26Kyshawn George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tristan Vukcevic assists)WSH 81 – 83 LAC · WSH 17% → 25% +8WSH 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q31:54Tristan Vukcevic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 88 – 89 LAC · WSH 20% → 29% +9WSH 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q31:34James Harden makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotWSH 88 – 91 LAC · LAC 71% → 77% +6LAC 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q339.1Nicolas Batum makes 22-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)WSH 88 – 96 LAC · LAC 83% → 89% +7LAC 83% → 89%+7 pts
- Q411:14Nicolas Batum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)WSH 91 – 99 LAC · LAC 83% → 90% +7LAC 83% → 90%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -11.5
- ML WSH +380 / LAC -500
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -9
- LAC 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- LAC: Elo 81.6%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -400
- WSH +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 108.0 – 119.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1322 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | −38 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Missing John Collins −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +258 Elo | LAC 81.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 84.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 112.127th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 113.59th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.2 | Margin | −1.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 114.012th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 115.423rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.5 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 304–15 | Road vs home | 10–917th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15184th of 30 |
| 30th of 301322 | Elo rating | 154811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−38 Elo- John Collins right groin−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–23 | 18–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 14–21 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–4 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.