Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints20
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Kon KnueppelRebounds10
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–97
- Q421.0Jett Howard makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot124–97
- Q426.6Sion James makes free throw 2 of 2124–94
- Q426.6Sion James makes free throw 1 of 2123–94
- Q426.6Jamal Cain shooting foul122–94
- Q446.3Ryan Kalkbrenner defensive rebound122–94
- Q449.2Jett Howard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot122–94
- Q41:01Tidjane Salaun makes running layup122–94
- Q41:04Ryan Kalkbrenner defensive rebound120–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:24Noah Penda makes running dunkCHA 18 – 13 ORL · ORL 32% → 47% +16ORL 32% → 47%+16 pts
- Q11:30Tidjane Salaun makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Collin Sexton assists)CHA 23 – 18 ORL · CHA 46% → 53% +7CHA 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q11:03Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 26 – 20 ORL · CHA 48% → 55% +7CHA 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q210:32Tidjane Salaun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 35 – 25 ORL · CHA 59% → 66% +7CHA 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q27:54Brandon Miller makes 9-foot two point shotCHA 47 – 28 ORL · CHA 75% → 84% +9CHA 75% → 84%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -3.5
- ML CHA +140 / ORL -166
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2
- ORL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- ORL: Elo 58.2%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- ORL -150
- CHA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.5 – 114.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +35 | +6 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +58 Elo | ORL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 116.118th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 115.213th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.915th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 113.017th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.914th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 13–69th of 30 |
| 24th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149320th of 30 |
| 19th of 301474 | Elo rating | 148518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–19 | 17–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–8 ORL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 26CHA 120 @ ORL 105Picked ORL 67%Miss
- Oct 30ORL 123 @ CHA 107Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Mar 25ORL 111 @ CHA 104Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Feb 12CHA 86 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 85%Hit
- Nov 25ORL 95 @ CHA 84Picked ORL 63%Hit
- Nov 12CHA 89 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Apr 5ORL 115 @ CHA 124Picked ORL 71%Miss
- Mar 19CHA 92 @ ORL 112Picked ORL 75%Hit