Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points30
- Cam SpencerAssists11
- John KoncharRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints26
- Anthony BlackAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–118
- Q46.2Franz Wagner defensive rebound111–118
- Q48.0Cedric Coward misses 23-foot three point jumper111–118
- Q48.9Grizzlies Full timeout111–118
- Q48.9Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2111–118
- Q48.9Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2111–117
- Q48.9Santi Aldama personal take foul111–116
- Q410.0Cedric Coward makes driving layup111–116
- Q415.5Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2109–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:29Vince Williams Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 103 – 102 ORL · MEM 32% → 51% +20MEM 32% → 51%+20 pts
- Q43:14Franz Wagner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)MEM 105 – 105 ORL · ORL 31% → 55% +23ORL 31% → 55%+23 pts
- Q43:03Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (John Konchar assists)MEM 107 – 105 ORL · MEM 46% → 62% +16MEM 46% → 62%+16 pts
- Q42:39Franz Wagner makes tip shotMEM 107 – 107 ORL · ORL 37% → 54% +17ORL 37% → 54%+17 pts
- Q42:27Anthony Black makes 1-foot running dunk (Paolo Banchero assists)MEM 107 – 109 ORL · ORL 54% → 71% +17ORL 54% → 71%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML MEM +190 / ORL -230
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2
- ORL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 58.3%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -202
- MEM +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 111.0 – 116.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | −28 | +35 | MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −9, Brandon Clarke −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +58 Elo | ORL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.9 | Points scored | 116.216th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 115.013th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.215th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 113.215th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 112.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.815th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149318th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 149415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−28 Elo- Scotty Pippen Jr. left toe surgery−9 Elo
- Brandon Clarke right calf strain−7 Elo
Magic
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–22 | 16–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 8–16 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–24 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–1 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.