Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints24
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints24
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Kon KnueppelRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–87
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound94–87
- Q40.0Grant Williams misses heave jump shot94–87
- Q42.3Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 294–87
- Q42.3Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 293–87
- Q42.3Sion James personal take foul92–87
- Q42.3Jarrett Allen defensive rebound92–87
- Q42.6Brandon Miller misses 23-foot three point jumper92–87
- Q49.9LaMelo Ball enters the game for Moussa Diabate92–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:53Josh Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)CLE 76 – 67 CHA · CHA 8% → 14% +6CHA 8% → 14%+6 pts
- Q410:30Collin Sexton makes running layupCLE 76 – 69 CHA · CHA 14% → 19% +5CHA 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q49:50Larry Nance Jr. makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jaylon Tyson assists)CLE 80 – 69 CHA · CLE 85% → 91% +7CLE 85% → 91%+7 pts
- Q48:15Ryan Kalkbrenner makes 1-foot dunk (Grant Williams assists)CLE 80 – 73 CHA · CHA 11% → 17% +6CHA 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q47:32Donovan Mitchell makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotCLE 82 – 73 CHA · CLE 84% → 90% +6CLE 84% → 90%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML CLE -155 / CHA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- CHA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 121.0 – 117.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +32 | CLE: Usual rotation · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | CHA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +12 Elo | CLE 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 116.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 116.417th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.8 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 114.910th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 114.920th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.3 | Pace | 100.621st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 7–1225th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 148427th of 30 |
| 11th of 301540 | Elo rating | 148218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–29 | 25–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–3 CHA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 22CHA 132 @ CLE 139Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Dec 14CHA 119 @ CLE 111Picked CLE 83%Miss
- Mar 7CLE 118 @ CHA 117Picked CLE 91%Hit
- Jan 5CHA 105 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 89%Hit
- Dec 7CLE 116 @ CHA 102Picked CLE 88%Hit
- Nov 17CHA 114 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Apr 14CHA 120 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 67%Miss
- Mar 27CLE 111 @ CHA 118Picked CLE 66%Miss