Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- Donovan MitchellAssists9
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints20
- Paul GeorgeAssists4
- Andre DrummondRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–107
- Q40.7shot clock turnover133–107
- Q424.7Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2133–107
- Q424.7Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2133–106
- Q424.7Thomas Bryant shooting foul133–105
- Q430.1Thomas Bryant makes dunk (Lonzo Ball assists)133–105
- Q431.6Justin Edwards makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Trendon Watford assists)131–105
- Q437.2Andre Drummond defensive rebound131–103
- Q442.2Tyrese Proctor misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot131–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:41Darius Garland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 3 – 0 PHI · CLE 50% → 56% +6CLE 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q110:47VJ Edgecombe makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Paul George assists)CLE 5 – 5 PHI · PHI 44% → 50% +6PHI 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q19:41Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)CLE 9 – 10 PHI · PHI 46% → 52% +6PHI 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q25:51Darius Garland makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 48 – 36 PHI · CLE 72% → 79% +6CLE 72% → 79%+6 pts
- Q25:36Tyrese Maxey makes 29-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)CLE 48 – 39 PHI · PHI 21% → 28% +6PHI 21% → 28%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -1.5
- ML CLE -110 / PHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.0 – 117.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +60 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 117.113th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 115.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.912th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 111.19th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.4 | Pace | 101.717th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 10–917th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148922nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301531 | Elo rating | 148616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–28 | 24–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–24 | 14–9 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–22 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–3 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Nov 5PHI 121 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Jan 24CLE 129 @ PHI 132Picked CLE 77%Miss
- Dec 21PHI 99 @ CLE 126Picked CLE 77%Hit
- Nov 13CLE 114 @ PHI 106Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Mar 29PHI 114 @ CLE 117Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Feb 23CLE 97 @ PHI 104Picked CLE 62%Miss
- Feb 12PHI 123 @ CLE 121Picked CLE 82%Miss
- Nov 21CLE 122 @ PHI 119Picked PHI 68%Miss