Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints33
- VJ EdgecombeAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds8
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints18
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Brandon IngramRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–102
- Q45.3Trendon Watford defensive rebound115–102
- Q48.1Ochai Agbaji misses 25-foot three point jumper115–102
- Q412.4Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound115–102
- Q416.0Kyle Lowry misses 29-foot three point jumper115–102
- Q425.1Adem Bona defensive rebound115–102
- Q429.1Trendon Watford blocks Alijah Martin 's 28-foot three point step back jumpshot115–102
- Q442.7Ochai Agbaji defensive rebound115–102
- Q442.7Adem Bona misses two point shot115–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:36Paul George makes 26-foot three pointer (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 5 – 4 TOR · PHI 55% → 61% +6PHI 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q19:06Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot running jump shot (Brandon Ingram assists)PHI 7 – 11 TOR · TOR 43% → 49% +6TOR 43% → 49%+6 pts
- Q18:52VJ Edgecombe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 10 – 11 TOR · PHI 51% → 57% +6PHI 51% → 57%+6 pts
- Q18:18Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)PHI 13 – 13 TOR · PHI 53% → 59% +6PHI 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q14:50Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 24 – 19 TOR · PHI 63% → 69% +6PHI 63% → 69%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML PHI -162 / TOR +136
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -146
- TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 112.5 – 109.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | TOR and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +57 | +19 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +1 Elo | TOR 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 114.223rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 112.36th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.911th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 110.66th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.724th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 13–813th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149022nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301474 | Elo rating | 147717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–14 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–9 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–17 | 16–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–6 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Jan 11PHI 115 @ TOR 116Picked PHI 53%Miss
- Nov 19TOR 121 @ PHI 112Picked TOR 57%Hit
- Nov 8TOR 120 @ PHI 130Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Mar 30TOR 127 @ PHI 109Picked TOR 68%Hit
- Mar 12PHI 105 @ TOR 118Picked TOR 57%Hit
- Feb 11TOR 106 @ PHI 103Picked PHI 81%Miss
- Oct 25PHI 107 @ TOR 115Picked PHI 65%Miss
- Mar 31PHI 135 @ TOR 120Picked PHI 58%Hit