Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Ja'Kobe WalterPoints19
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists13
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds8
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints27
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–125
- Q414.0shot clock turnover117–125
- Q438.1Gradey Dick makes driving layup (Jamal Shead assists)117–125
- Q444.7Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound115–125
- Q450.3Payton Pritchard misses 11-foot two point shot115–125
- Q41:12Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 1-foot driving dunk (Immanuel Quickley assists)115–125
- Q41:21Payton Pritchard makes 9-foot pullup jump shot113–125
- Q41:37Ja'Kobe Walter makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Jamal Shead assists)113–123
- Q41:44Ja'Kobe Walter defensive rebound111–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:49Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)TOR 47 – 49 BOS · BOS 68% → 75% +7BOS 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q49:55Derrick White makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 93 – 102 BOS · BOS 84% → 91% +7BOS 84% → 91%+7 pts
- Q48:25Ja'Kobe Walter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 98 – 104 BOS · TOR 8% → 15% +7TOR 8% → 15%+7 pts
- Q46:15Ja'Kobe Walter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 103 – 108 BOS · TOR 8% → 17% +9TOR 8% → 17%+9 pts
- Q45:17Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 106 – 112 BOS · TOR 5% → 12% +7TOR 5% → 12%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -9.5
- ML TOR +285 / BOS -360
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9
- BOS 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 81.2%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -301
- TOR +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.0 – 116.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1650 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +10 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +254 Elo | BOS 81.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.0 | Points scored | 117.613th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 110.62nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +7.03rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 119.92nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.8 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 11–612th of 30 |
| 27th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 148625th of 30 |
| 17th of 301477 | Elo rating | 16502nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–20 | 21–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 13–11 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–24 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–9 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 20BOS 112 @ TOR 96Picked TOR 53%Miss
- Dec 7BOS 121 @ TOR 113Picked BOS 58%Hit
- Feb 25BOS 111 @ TOR 101Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 97 @ TOR 110Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Dec 31TOR 71 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 91%Hit
- Nov 16TOR 123 @ BOS 126Picked BOS 90%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 105 @ TOR 96Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Dec 29TOR 118 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 65%Hit