Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints38
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Quentin GrimesRebounds7
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints31
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game115–116
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime115–116
- OT0.8Raptors offensive team rebound115–116
- OT0.8Scottie Barnes misses free throw 2 of 2115–116
- OT0.8Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2115–116
- OT0.8Kelly Oubre Jr. personal foul115–115
- OT6.3Raptors Full timeout115–115
- OT6.3Tyrese Maxey personal foul115–115
- OT15.6Raptors Full timeout115–115
- OT15.6VJ Edgecombe makes 30-foot three pointer115–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:09Tyrese Maxey makes 19-foot two point shotPHI 102 – 101 TOR · PHI 37% → 64% +26PHI 37% → 64%+26 pts
- Q448.6Tyrese Maxey makes 1-foot two point shotPHI 104 – 103 TOR · PHI 35% → 66% +31PHI 35% → 66%+31 pts
- Q41.9Jamal Shead makes layup (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)PHI 107 – 107 TOR · TOR <1% → 50% +50TOR <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT15.6VJ Edgecombe makes 30-foot three pointerPHI 115 – 115 TOR · PHI 2% → 50% +49PHI 2% → 50%+49 pts
- OT0.8Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2PHI 115 – 116 TOR · TOR 50% → >99% +50TOR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML PHI -125 / TOR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2
- PHI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 42.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.5 – 109.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | −20 | PHI: Missing Paul George −30 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +50 Elo | TOR 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 112.25th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.96th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.624th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 12–814th of 30 |
| 19th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149221st of 30 |
| 17th of 301477 | Elo rating | 147420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−36 Elo- Paul George left knee soreness−30 Elo
Raptors
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–13 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–8 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 15–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Nov 19TOR 121 @ PHI 112Picked TOR 57%Hit
- Nov 8TOR 120 @ PHI 130Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Mar 30TOR 127 @ PHI 109Picked TOR 68%Hit
- Mar 12PHI 105 @ TOR 118Picked TOR 57%Hit
- Feb 11TOR 106 @ PHI 103Picked PHI 81%Miss
- Oct 25PHI 107 @ TOR 115Picked PHI 65%Miss
- Mar 31PHI 135 @ TOR 120Picked PHI 58%Hit
- Dec 22TOR 111 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 78%Hit