Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints32
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds17
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints23
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–112
- Q410.8shot clock turnover123–112
- Q435.6Darius Garland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)123–112
- Q437.2Jarrett Allen offensive rebound123–109
- Q439.1Donovan Mitchell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot123–109
- Q444.9Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)123–109
- Q445.4Keyonte George offensive rebound120–109
- Q449.2Darius Garland blocks Keyonte George 's 27-foot three point jumper120–109
- Q41:05Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound120–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:39Sam Merrill makes 25-foot running jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)UTAH 90 – 89 CLE · CLE 51% → 63% +12CLE 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q411:20Svi Mykhailiuk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 93 – 89 CLE · UTAH 37% → 50% +13UTAH 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q410:56Svi Mykhailiuk makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 96 – 89 CLE · UTAH 50% → 63% +13UTAH 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q49:45Kevin Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 101 – 92 CLE · UTAH 61% → 74% +12UTAH 61% → 74%+12 pts
- Q45:44Darius Garland makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Craig Porter Jr. assists)UTAH 108 – 102 CLE · CLE 15% → 28% +13CLE 15% → 28%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML UTAH +425 / CLE -575
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -10
- CLE 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 83.3%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -447
- UTAH +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.0 – 131.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 249.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +35 | UTAH: Usual rotation · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +280 Elo | CLE 83.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 87.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 86.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 120.03rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.3 | Points allowed | 117.621st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.3 | Margin | +2.410th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 115.37th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.6 | Defense rating | 113.115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 103.39th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 14–914th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 28th of 301372 | Elo rating | 15549th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–17 | 13–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–14 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–4 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.