Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints28
- Anthony EdwardsAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–131
- Q410.2Julius Randle defensive rebound122–131
- Q413.4Sam Merrill misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot122–131
- Q418.5Jaden McDaniels makes running dunk (Anthony Edwards assists)122–131
- Q421.4Julius Randle defensive rebound122–129
- Q425.1Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper122–129
- Q426.4Sam Merrill enters the game for Jarrett Allen122–129
- Q426.4Cavaliers Full timeout122–129
- Q426.4Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2122–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:53Julius Randle makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 67 – 68 MIN · MIN 49% → 58% +9MIN 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q39:21Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)CLE 69 – 75 MIN · MIN 64% → 72% +8MIN 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q37:47Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)CLE 75 – 81 MIN · MIN 64% → 73% +9MIN 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q42:56Sam Merrill makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 117 – 121 MIN · CLE 6% → 19% +12CLE 6% → 19%+12 pts
- Q42:35Anthony Edwards makes driving layupCLE 117 – 123 MIN · MIN 83% → 92% +9MIN 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML CLE +124 / MIN -148
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -134
- CLE +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.0 – 121.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +14 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +78 Elo | MIN 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 119.66th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 114.110th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +5.66th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 115.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 110.34th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.4 | Pace | 102.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 13–69th of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 148525th of 30 |
| 10th of 301549 | Elo rating | 16075th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–26 | 16–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–1 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.