Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints21
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Julius RandleAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–122
- Q40.5Joe Ingles defensive rebound94–122
- Q42.7Myron Gardner misses running pullup jump shot94–122
- Q47.3Rob Dillingham bad pass
turnover (Myron Gardner steals)94–122
- Q414.1Kasparas Jakucionis makes 24-foot three pointer (Kel'el Ware assists)94–122
- Q424.6Leonard Miller makes dunk91–122
- Q425.0Leonard Miller offensive rebound91–120
- Q426.4Rob Dillingham misses two point shot91–120
- Q429.3Keshad Johnson bad pass
turnover (Rob Dillingham steals)91–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:44Dru Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 29 – 20 MIN · MIA 51% → 58% +7MIA 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q12.3Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIA 29 – 27 MIN · MIN 51% → 58% +7MIN 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q211:04Naz Reid makes 23-foot running jump shot (Bones Hyland assists)MIA 29 – 30 MIN · MIN 58% → 65% +7MIN 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q24:49Norman Powell makes 24-foot running jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 44 – 45 MIN · MIA 29% → 36% +7MIA 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q24:34Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three pointerMIA 44 – 48 MIN · MIN 64% → 71% +7MIN 64% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML MIA +170 / MIN -205
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.5 – 122.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +16 | MIA: Missing Jaime Jaquez Jr. −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +89 Elo | MIN 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 119.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +4.97th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 115.88th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 111.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.2 | Pace | 102.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 12–611th of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 148524th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+41 Elo- Jaime Jaquez Jr. right ankle sprain−1 Elo
Timberwolves
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–15 | 15–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 12–18 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–4 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.