Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints25
- Bones HylandAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints28
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–146
- Q40.0(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)134–146
- Q40.0Jaylon Tyson makes 1-foot driving dunk (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)134–146
- Q412.6Thomas Bryant defensive goaltending violation134–144
- Q412.6Johnny Juzang makes two point shot134–144
- Q415.6Johnny Juzang offensive rebound132–144
- Q417.1Leonard Miller misses two point shot132–144
- Q417.7Leonard Miller offensive rebound132–144
- Q419.4Thomas Bryant blocks Rob Dillingham 's 2-foot driving layup132–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:57Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)MIN 67 – 68 CLE · CLE 48% → 57% +9CLE 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q38:18Sam Merrill makes 25-foot running jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)MIN 73 – 73 CLE · CLE 45% → 54% +10CLE 45% → 54%+10 pts
- Q33:19Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointer (Craig Porter Jr. assists)MIN 85 – 90 CLE · CLE 61% → 71% +10CLE 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q410:44Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 98 – 103 CLE · MIN 17% → 27% +10MIN 17% → 27%+10 pts
- Q410:00Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)MIN 100 – 108 CLE · CLE 74% → 84% +10CLE 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.5% of 437 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML MIN +120 / CLE -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- CLE 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 46.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 119.0 – 121.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1614 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +33 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone and CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 119.37th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 117.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.7 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 114.710th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.6 | Pace | 103.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 13–914th of 30 |
| 26th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 30 |
| 4th of 301614 | Elo rating | 154211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–21 | 12–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–18 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 18–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.