Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Ajay MitchellAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints19
- Evan MobleyAssists5
- Jaylon TysonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–104
- Q44.3Chris Youngblood defensive rebound136–104
- Q44.3Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses 1-foot tip shot136–104
- Q45.3Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound136–104
- Q47.4Jaylon Tyson misses driving floating jump shot136–104
- Q431.0Ousmane Dieng makes 30-foot three pointer136–104
- Q438.7Jaylon Tyson makes 31-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)133–104
- Q446.1Ousmane Dieng makes 12-foot turnaround jump shot133–101
- Q455.8Jaylon Tyson makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot131–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:28Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 5 – 4 CLE · OKC 62% → 68% +6OKC 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q26:23Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 47 – 38 CLE · OKC 77% → 82% +6OKC 77% → 82%+6 pts
- Q24:15De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)OKC 50 – 45 CLE · CLE 19% → 25% +6CLE 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q23:56Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 53 – 45 CLE · OKC 75% → 81% +6OKC 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q33:28Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 81 – 70 CLE · OKC 83% → 89% +6OKC 83% → 89%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML OKC -225 / CLE +185
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- OKC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 62.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -197
- CLE +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 118.0 – 111.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1690 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +10 | OKC: Usual rotation · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +89 Elo | OKC 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 117.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.0 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 115.58th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.5 | Pace | 103.29th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–5 | Road vs home | 14–1015th of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149120th of 30 |
| 1st of 301690 | Elo rating | 155611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–22 | 15–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–22 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | — | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 20–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.