Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints20
- Jalen WilliamsAssists10
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints19
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–91
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound111–91
- Q40.0Jeff Green misses heave jump shot111–91
- Q41.9shot clock turnover111–91
- Q426.0Jeff Green makes 26-foot three point jumper111–91
- Q438.0Jeff Green defensive rebound111–88
- Q439.9Ousmane Dieng misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot111–88
- Q449.8Jae'Sean Tate makes 12-foot two point shot111–88
- Q41:02Kenrich Williams makes 18-foot pullup jump shot111–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:04Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 62 – 60 HOU · OKC 54% → 63% +9OKC 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q35:57Aaron Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 69 – 63 HOU · OKC 66% → 75% +9OKC 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q32:38JD Davison makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)OKC 73 – 70 HOU · HOU 24% → 33% +10HOU 24% → 33%+10 pts
- Q410:53Ajay Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 82 – 77 HOU · OKC 64% → 75% +11OKC 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q410:17Cason Wallace makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 85 – 77 HOU · OKC 76% → 85% +9OKC 76% → 85%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -4.5
- ML OKC -175 / HOU +145
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 60.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -156
- HOU +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.0 – 108.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1687 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +28 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +74 Elo | OKC 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.3 | Points scored | 117.99th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 110.83rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.2 | Margin | +7.12nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 118.33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–4 | Road vs home | 12–22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149516th of 30 |
| 1st of 301687 | Elo rating | 15677th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | — | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–4 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Oct 21HOU 124 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Apr 4OKC 111 @ HOU 125Picked OKC 68%Miss
- Mar 3HOU 128 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Dec 14HOU 96 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 67%Hit
- Dec 1OKC 116 @ HOU 119Picked OKC 52%Miss
- Nov 8HOU 107 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Mar 27HOU 132 @ OKC 126Picked HOU 57%Hit
- Feb 27HOU 95 @ OKC 112Picked OKC 74%Hit