Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Tre JonesPoints34
- Tre JonesAssists7
- Jalen SmithRebounds9
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints28
- Alperen SengunAssists11
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–119
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)113–119
- Q40.0Tre Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)113–119
- Q49.9Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2110–119
- Q49.9Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun110–118
- Q49.9Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Kevin Durant110–118
- Q49.9Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2110–118
- Q49.9Jalen Smith shooting foul110–117
- Q432.1JD Davison defensive rebound110–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:02Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot running jump shot (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 99 – 98 HOU · CHI 27% → 43% +16CHI 27% → 43%+16 pts
- Q45:37Amen Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Steven Adams assists)CHI 99 – 101 HOU · HOU 56% → 73% +17HOU 56% → 73%+17 pts
- Q45:15Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three pointerCHI 102 – 101 HOU · CHI 27% → 45% +17CHI 27% → 45%+17 pts
- Q43:10Tre Jones makes two point shotCHI 106 – 105 HOU · CHI 33% → 49% +16CHI 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q42:52Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)CHI 106 – 108 HOU · HOU 50% → 74% +24HOU 50% → 74%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -12.5
- ML CHI +410 / HOU -550
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7
- HOU 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 75.3%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -432
- CHI +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 106.0 – 118.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +26 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +194 Elo | HOU 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 81.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 117.910th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 110.83rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.5 | Margin | +7.22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 118.24th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 111.07th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.4 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 11–22nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301433 | Elo rating | 15638th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–20 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.