San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints20
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Luke KornetRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–119
- Q414.3Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound98–119
- Q416.9Aaron Wiggins misses 30-foot three point step back jumpshot98–119
- Q436.9Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound98–119
- Q438.5Jordan McLaughlin misses two point shot98–119
- Q453.0Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)98–119
- Q41:10Jaylin Williams defensive rebound98–116
- Q41:13Dylan Harper misses 18-foot pullup jump shot98–116
- Q41:21Carter Bryant defensive rebound98–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:50Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 48 – 48 OKC · SA 26% → 33% +7SA 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q22:35Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)SA 48 – 51 OKC · OKC 67% → 74% +7OKC 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q22:21Julian Champagnie makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SA 51 – 51 OKC · SA 26% → 33% +7SA 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q310:29De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 59 – 62 OKC · SA 19% → 26% +7SA 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q310:06Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 62 – 62 OKC · SA 26% → 34% +8SA 26% → 34%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML SA +250 / OKC -310
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 71.7%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -265
- SA +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.0 – 119.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1678 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +48 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +162 Elo | OKC 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 75.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 121.42nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 108.41st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +13.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 117.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 105.01st of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.718th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 19–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148527th of 30 |
| 9th of 301554 | Elo rating | 16781st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–17 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 19–21 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 17–23 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 5–5 OKC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Dec 25SA 117 @ OKC 102Picked OKC 75%Miss
- Dec 23OKC 110 @ SA 130Picked OKC 67%Miss
- Dec 13SA 111 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 82%Miss
- Mar 2OKC 146 @ SA 132Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 19OKC 104 @ SA 110Picked OKC 79%Miss
- Oct 30SA 93 @ OKC 105Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 10SA 89 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 82%Hit
- Feb 29OKC 118 @ SA 132Picked OKC 74%Miss