San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints21
- De'Aaron FoxAssists6
- Julian ChampagnieRebounds13
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints29
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–95
- Q47.1Luke Kornet makes free throw 2 of 2100–95
- Q47.1Spurs offensive team rebound99–95
- Q47.1Luke Kornet misses free throw 1 of 299–95
- Q47.1Derrick White personal take foul99–95
- Q47.3Luke Kornet defensive rebound99–95
- Q47.3Julian Champagnie blocks Derrick White 's 25-foot three point jumper99–95
- Q413.2Derrick White offensive rebound99–95
- Q413.2Jaylen Brown misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot99–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:59Baylor Scheierman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)SA 84 – 87 BOS · BOS 50% → 66% +16BOS 50% → 66%+16 pts
- Q42:43Luke Kornet makes tip in dunkSA 90 – 91 BOS · SA 26% → 41% +16SA 26% → 41%+16 pts
- Q42:15Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 93 – 91 BOS · SA 41% → 69% +28SA 41% → 69%+28 pts
- Q41:56Jaylen Brown makes driving layupSA 93 – 93 BOS · BOS 30% → 50% +20BOS 30% → 50%+20 pts
- Q41:33Victor Wembanyama makes 14-foot fade away jump shotSA 95 – 93 BOS · SA 50% → 72% +22SA 50% → 72%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -1.5
- ML SA -112 / BOS -108
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- SA 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- SA: Elo 40.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- SA -102
- BOS +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 116.5 – 115.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1652 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +56 | +13 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +69 Elo | BOS 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 117.812th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 110.72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +7.03rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 120.32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 113.115th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.2 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–6 | Road vs home | 12–610th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 148427th of 30 |
| 11th of 301547 | Elo rating | 16522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–17 | 21–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 13–12 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.