San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints29
- Stephon CastleAssists5
- Luke KornetRebounds12
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints23
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–104
- Q40.9Spurs offensive team rebound103–104
- Q41.9De'Aaron Fox misses 26-foot three point jumper103–104
- Q43.1Julian Champagnie offensive rebound103–104
- Q45.1Luke Kornet misses tip shot103–104
- Q45.1Luke Kornet offensive rebound103–104
- Q46.6Victor Wembanyama misses 16-foot pullup jump shot103–104
- Q416.8Rudy Gobert enters the game for Naz Reid103–104
- Q416.8Spurs Full timeout103–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:19Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot two point shotSA 98 – 100 MIN · MIN 51% → 69% +18MIN 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q41:28Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot running jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 101 – 100 MIN · SA 27% → 61% +34SA 27% → 61%+34 pts
- Q448.7Jaden McDaniels makes 10-foot fade away jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)SA 101 – 102 MIN · MIN 35% → 66% +31MIN 35% → 66%+31 pts
- Q433.7De'Aaron Fox makes 11-foot pullup jump shotSA 103 – 102 MIN · SA 31% → 68% +37SA 31% → 68%+37 pts
- Q416.8Anthony Edwards makes 3-foot two point shotSA 103 – 104 MIN · MIN 25% → 76% +50MIN 25% → 76%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML SA +120 / MIN -142
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- SA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 115.5 – 118.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +54 | +16 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +83 Elo | MIN 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 120.33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 115.113th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +5.27th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 116.36th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.1 | Pace | 102.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–6 | Road vs home | 14–68th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148625th of 30 |
| 10th of 301556 | Elo rating | 16015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–17 | 17–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–7 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 30SA 112 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Mar 9SA 124 @ MIN 141Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 29SA 110 @ MIN 112Picked MIN 67%Hit
- Dec 15MIN 106 @ SA 92Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Nov 2MIN 103 @ SA 113Picked MIN 60%Miss
- Feb 27SA 105 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 80%Hit
- Jan 27MIN 112 @ SA 113Picked MIN 71%Miss
- Dec 6SA 94 @ MIN 102Picked MIN 81%Hit