Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints23
- Davion MitchellAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints29
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–124
- Q40.7Kenrich Williams defensive rebound112–124
- Q44.3Kel'el Ware misses 27-foot three point jumper112–124
- Q414.1Kel'el Ware defensive rebound112–124
- Q418.0Branden Carlson misses 23-foot three point jumper112–124
- Q439.7Kenrich Williams defensive rebound112–124
- Q442.6Simone Fontecchio misses 23-foot running jump shot112–124
- Q448.0Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound112–124
- Q450.0Cason Wallace misses driving layup112–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:17Nikola Jovic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Dru Smith assists)MIA 41 – 34 OKC · MIA 27% → 33% +7MIA 27% → 33%+7 pts
- Q24:53Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 46 – 42 OKC · MIA 23% → 29% +7MIA 23% → 29%+7 pts
- Q23:44Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 49 – 44 OKC · MIA 26% → 33% +7MIA 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q311:31Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 62 – 56 OKC · MIA 31% → 39% +8MIA 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q36:44Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)MIA 70 – 72 OKC · OKC 72% → 79% +8OKC 72% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -14.5
- ML MIA +550 / OKC -800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10
- OKC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 83.7%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -578
- MIA +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.0 – 124.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1675 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | +2 | MIA: Missing Norman Powell −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +284 Elo | OKC 83.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 84.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 84.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 121.32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 108.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +13.11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 117.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 105.01st of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.4 | Pace | 101.618th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–12 | Road vs home | 18–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 148129th of 30 |
| 20th of 301469 | Elo rating | 16751st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+1 Elo- Norman Powell lower back soreness−21 Elo
Thunder
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–17 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 19–20 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | — |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–4 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.