Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints21
- Tyler HerroAssists4
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints29
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–123
- Q411.3Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 299–123
- Q411.3Jarace Walker makes free throw 1 of 299–122
- Q411.3Myron Gardner personal foul99–121
- Q417.0Keshad Johnson makes 2-foot dunk (Dru Smith assists)99–121
- Q420.9Myron Gardner offensive rebound97–121
- Q424.9Keshad Johnson misses 28-foot three point jumper97–121
- Q433.7Tony Bradley makes free throw 2 of 297–121
- Q433.7Pacers offensive team rebound97–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:17Johnny Furphy makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)MIA 10 – 24 IND · IND 57% → 64% +6IND 57% → 64%+6 pts
- Q39:39Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three pointerMIA 54 – 61 IND · MIA 32% → 41% +9MIA 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q37:34Micah Potter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)MIA 58 – 68 IND · IND 61% → 70% +9IND 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q37:06Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)MIA 58 – 71 IND · IND 70% → 78% +8IND 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:42Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot running jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)MIA 63 – 76 IND · IND 72% → 80% +8IND 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -6.5
- ML MIA -245 / IND +200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5.5
- MIA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 71.0%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -213
- IND +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 121.0 – 114.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −49 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +155 Elo | MIA 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 66.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.1 | Points scored | 110.828th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 119.525th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −8.728th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 107.529th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 115.823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.2 | Pace | 102.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 5–1529th of 30 |
| 6th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 138727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–16 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–4 IND in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Dec 27IND 116 @ MIA 142Picked MIA 70%Hit
- Feb 28IND 120 @ MIA 125Picked IND 57%Miss
- Jan 2IND 128 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 56%Miss
- Nov 17MIA 110 @ IND 119Picked IND 60%Hit
- Nov 15MIA 124 @ IND 111Picked IND 62%Miss
- Apr 7MIA 115 @ IND 117Picked IND 55%Hit
- Dec 2IND 144 @ MIA 129Picked MIA 61%Miss
- Nov 30IND 132 @ MIA 142Picked MIA 53%Hit