Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jaylon TysonPoints39
- Donovan MitchellAssists12
- Donovan MitchellRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Quentin GrimesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–115
- Q40.376ers offensive team rebound117–115
- Q40.3Tyrese Maxey misses heave jump shot117–115
- Q44.8Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Jaylon Tyson assists)117–115
- Q48.1Lonzo Ball enters the game for Jarrett Allen115–115
- Q48.1Cavaliers Full timeout115–115
- Q48.1Tyrese Maxey makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Joel Embiid assists)115–115
- Q422.2Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2115–113
- Q422.2Cavaliers offensive team rebound114–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:53De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 102 – 102 PHI · CLE 31% → 48% +17CLE 31% → 48%+17 pts
- Q41:59Jaylon Tyson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 112 – 111 PHI · CLE 30% → 59% +30CLE 30% → 59%+30 pts
- Q41:05De'Andre Hunter makes running layup (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 114 – 113 PHI · CLE 36% → 63% +27CLE 36% → 63%+27 pts
- Q48.1Tyrese Maxey makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Joel Embiid assists)CLE 115 – 115 PHI · PHI 3% → 50% +48PHI 3% → 50%+48 pts
- Q44.8Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Jaylon Tyson assists)CLE 117 – 115 PHI · CLE 50% → >99% +50CLE 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML CLE +114 / PHI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- PHI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 45.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- CLE +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.5 – 118.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +47 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.1 | Points scored | 116.813th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 115.614th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +1.215th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.510th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.4 | Pace | 101.716th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 10–1020th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149121st of 30 |
| 12th of 301552 | Elo rating | 146520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–28 | 24–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 14–9 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–3 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Jan 14CLE 133 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 50%Miss
- Nov 5PHI 121 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Jan 24CLE 129 @ PHI 132Picked CLE 77%Miss
- Dec 21PHI 99 @ CLE 126Picked CLE 77%Hit
- Nov 13CLE 114 @ PHI 106Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Mar 29PHI 114 @ CLE 117Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Feb 23CLE 97 @ PHI 104Picked CLE 62%Miss
- Feb 12PHI 123 @ CLE 121Picked CLE 82%Miss