Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints39
- Jaylin WilliamsAssists4
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints30
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–122
- Q40.2Thunder offensive team rebound120–122
- Q42.0Alex Caruso misses 25-foot jump bank shot120–122
- Q43.0Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Cason Wallace120–122
- Q43.0Dru Smith enters the game for Simone Fontecchio120–122
- Q43.0Thunder Full timeout120–122
- Q43.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound120–122
- Q45.9Andrew Wiggins misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot120–122
- Q421.9Cason Wallace enters the game for Aaron Wiggins120–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:22Kasparas Jakucionis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)OKC 108 – 108 MIA · MIA 23% → 39% +16MIA 23% → 39%+16 pts
- Q45:06Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)OKC 111 – 108 MIA · OKC 61% → 78% +17OKC 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q43:43Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)OKC 113 – 114 MIA · MIA 27% → 48% +21MIA 27% → 48%+21 pts
- Q43:27Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 116 – 114 MIA · OKC 51% → 73% +22OKC 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q431.7Andrew Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)OKC 120 – 122 MIA · MIA 28% → 82% +54MIA 28% → 82%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML OKC -520 / MIA +390
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 75.1%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -411
- MIA +411 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 123.5 – 112.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1699 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +9 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −21, Jaime Jaquez Jr. −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +192 Elo | OKC 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 80.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 119.45th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 117.822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.4 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.6 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.5 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–4 | Road vs home | 14–710th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15214th of 30 |
| 1st of 301699 | Elo rating | 147117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+9 Elo- Tyler Herro rib contusion−21 Elo
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. left knee sprain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–21 | 23–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | — | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–0 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.