Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints25
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds14
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints29
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–127
- Q40.1Suns offensive team rebound121–127
- Q41.1Royce O'Neale misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot121–127
- Q44.8Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 2 of 2121–127
- Q44.8Pelle Larsson enters the game for Norman Powell121–126
- Q44.8Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 1 of 2121–126
- Q44.8Ryan Dunn personal take foul121–125
- Q46.3Ryan Dunn enters the game for Collin Gillespie121–125
- Q46.3Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Dillon Brooks121–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:27Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)PHX 114 – 113 MIA · MIA 18% → 41% +23MIA 18% → 41%+23 pts
- Q41:49Bam Adebayo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)PHX 114 – 116 MIA · MIA 40% → 71% +31MIA 40% → 71%+31 pts
- Q41:12Norman Powell makes 13-foot jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)PHX 116 – 118 MIA · MIA 50% → 75% +24MIA 50% → 75%+24 pts
- Q459.9Mark Williams makes tip shotPHX 118 – 118 MIA · PHX 23% → 50% +26PHX 23% → 50%+26 pts
- Q448.3Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)PHX 118 – 121 MIA · MIA 50% → 89% +38MIA 50% → 89%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML PHX +102 / MIA -122
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- MIA 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 39.0%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -111
- PHX +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.5 – 117.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +18 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | PHX crossed 2 time zones and MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +78 Elo | PHX 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.7 | Points scored | 119.46th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 117.722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 111.822nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 110.33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.8 | Pace | 106.41st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 13–68th of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 30 |
| 6th of 301592 | Elo rating | 146520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–11 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–2 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–23 | 18–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.