Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Anfernee SimonsPoints39
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds9
Heat- Norman PowellPoints26
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists8
- Andrew WigginsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–114
- Q43.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2119–114
- Q43.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 2118–114
- Q43.1Tyler Herro personal take foul117–114
- Q44.7Norman Powell makes driving layup117–114
- Q48.5Anfernee Simons enters the game for Baylor Scheierman117–112
- Q48.5Heat Full timeout117–112
- Q48.5Sam Hauser makes free throw 2 of 2117–112
- Q48.5Sam Hauser makes free throw 1 of 2116–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:21Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)BOS 101 – 100 MIA · BOS 40% → 59% +18BOS 40% → 59%+18 pts
- Q44:45Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 104 – 102 MIA · BOS 46% → 65% +19BOS 46% → 65%+19 pts
- Q44:25Kasparas Jakucionis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)BOS 104 – 105 MIA · MIA 35% → 55% +20MIA 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q44:05Jaylen Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)BOS 107 – 105 MIA · BOS 45% → 66% +21BOS 45% → 66%+21 pts
- Q41:24Norman Powell makes 7-foot two point shotBOS 111 – 109 MIA · MIA 3% → 26% +23MIA 3% → 26%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -2.5
- ML BOS -148 / MIA +124
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -134
- MIA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 119.0 – 116.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1635 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +35 | BOS: Usual rotation · MIA: Missing Jaime Jaquez Jr. −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +89 Elo | BOS 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 119.55th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 117.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.5 | Margin | +1.813th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.2 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 110.43rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 106.31st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 14–68th of 30 |
| 28th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 15164th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301635 | Elo rating | 147618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+35 Elo- Jaime Jaquez Jr. sore left knee−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–18 | 23–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 11–2 MIA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.
- Dec 19MIA 116 @ BOS 129Picked BOS 72%Hit
- Apr 2MIA 124 @ BOS 103Picked BOS 79%Miss
- Mar 14BOS 103 @ MIA 91Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Feb 10BOS 103 @ MIA 85Picked BOS 73%Hit
- Dec 2MIA 89 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 77%Hit
- May 1MIA 84 @ BOS 118PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Apr 29BOS 102 @ MIA 88PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 104 @ MIA 84PlayoffsPicked BOS 66%Hit