Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints23
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Jordan WalshRebounds9
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints21
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Pascal SiakamRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–98
- Q41.9Jarace Walker defensive rebound96–98
- Q41.9Derrick White misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot96–98
- Q45.1Andrew Nembhard personal take foul96–98
- Q46.1Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Neemias Queta96–98
- Q46.1Anfernee Simons enters the game for Jordan Walsh96–98
- Q46.1Jarace Walker enters the game for Jay Huff96–98
- Q46.1Celtics Full timeout96–98
- Q46.8Pascal Siakam makes 7-foot two point shot96–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:52Derrick White makes 29-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 90 – 91 IND · BOS 30% → 48% +19BOS 30% → 48%+19 pts
- Q43:56Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 90 – 94 IND · IND 53% → 73% +20IND 53% → 73%+20 pts
- Q42:16Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)BOS 94 – 96 IND · BOS 13% → 35% +21BOS 13% → 35%+21 pts
- Q429.1Derrick White makes 6-foot two point shotBOS 96 – 96 IND · BOS 16% → 51% +36BOS 16% → 51%+36 pts
- Q46.8Pascal Siakam makes 7-foot two point shotBOS 96 – 98 IND · IND 49% → 98% +49IND 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML BOS -205 / IND +170
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 75.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -181
- IND +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.5 – 111.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | −45 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −45 · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +194 Elo | BOS 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 111.228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 119.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.7 | Margin | −7.827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 107.529th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 115.022nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 102.810th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 6–1528th of 30 |
| 26th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301644 | Elo rating | 141724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−42 Elo- Jaylen Brown low back muscle spasms−45 Elo
Pacers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–17 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–12 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 15–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–4 IND in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.
- Dec 26BOS 140 @ IND 122Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Dec 22IND 95 @ BOS 103Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Dec 29IND 123 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 81%Miss
- Dec 27IND 105 @ BOS 142Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Oct 30BOS 132 @ IND 135Picked BOS 70%Miss
- May 27BOS 105 @ IND 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 25BOS 114 @ IND 111PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 23IND 110 @ BOS 126PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit