Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Anthony BlackPoints19
- Paolo BancheroAssists9
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints24
- Ja MorantAssists13
- Jock LandaleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–126
- Q46.3Goga Bitadze makes dunk109–126
- Q47.7Goga Bitadze offensive rebound107–126
- Q410.1Jonathan Isaac misses 25-foot three point jumper107–126
- Q418.4Jase Richardson defensive rebound107–126
- Q422.2Jaylen Wells misses 13-foot two point shot107–126
- Q435.6Jamal Cain lost ball turnover (John Konchar steals)107–126
- Q444.0John Konchar makes layup (Cam Spencer assists)107–126
- Q455.9Grizzlies defensive team rebound107–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:40Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)ORL 0 – 3 MEM · MEM 44% → 50% +6MEM 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q111:06Ja Morant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)ORL 2 – 6 MEM · MEM 46% → 52% +6MEM 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q17:45Jaylen Wells makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)ORL 8 – 17 MEM · MEM 57% → 63% +6MEM 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q17:23Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)ORL 10 – 20 MEM · MEM 59% → 65% +6MEM 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q15:05Cam Spencer makes 25-foot three pointer (Jock Landale assists)ORL 16 – 29 MEM · MEM 66% → 72% +6MEM 66% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML ORL -142 / MEM +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1
- ORL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 54.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -129
- MEM +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 116.0 – 113.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +31 | +6 | ORL: Missing Moritz Wagner −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +33 Elo | ORL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 114.821st of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 116.216th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 110.325th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.8 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150611th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Elo rating | 149314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+31 Elo- Moritz Wagner left knee−7 Elo
Grizzlies
+6 Elo- Scotty Pippen Jr. surgery rehab−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–24 | 17–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–18 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 8–17 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 16–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–3 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.