Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Peyton WatsonPoints35
- Jamal MurrayAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints20
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists7
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–97
- Q420.7shot clock turnover107–97
- Q445.5Kyshawn George makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Bub Carrington assists)107–97
- Q459.4Jalen Pickett makes free throw 2 of 2107–95
- Q459.4Jalen Pickett makes free throw 1 of 2106–95
- Q459.4Tre Johnson personal foul105–95
- Q41:05Peyton Watson defensive rebound105–95
- Q41:08Tre Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper105–95
- Q41:16Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2105–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:20Peyton Watson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)DEN 51 – 48 WSH · DEN 63% → 71% +8DEN 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q38:39Khris Middleton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)DEN 55 – 53 WSH · WSH 24% → 32% +8WSH 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q410:34Will Riley makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)DEN 81 – 79 WSH · WSH 22% → 33% +11WSH 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q48:34Bruce Brown makes driving layup (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 85 – 83 WSH · DEN 58% → 67% +9DEN 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q47:55Peyton Watson makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)DEN 88 – 83 WSH · DEN 67% → 80% +12DEN 67% → 80%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML DEN -250 / WSH +205
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6.5
- DEN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 73.7%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -218
- WSH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 117.0 – 110.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1308 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −80 | −25 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Marvin Bagley III −19 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +179 Elo | DEN 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.4 | Points scored | 112.525th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 123.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −11.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.3 | Offense rating | 108.528th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 119.229th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.9 | Pace | 103.29th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3017–7 | Road vs home | 6–1428th of 30 |
| 27th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 4th of 301602 | Elo rating | 130830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−25 Elo- Marvin Bagley III illness−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–19 | 17–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–14 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 16–23 |
| Overs–unders | 27–17 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.