Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints38
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds13
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints28
- Jamal MurrayAssists11
- Jalen PickettRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–107
- Q412.9shot clock turnover115–107
- Q436.8Rui Hachimura defensive rebound115–107
- Q438.8Jamal Murray misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot115–107
- Q441.9Nuggets Full timeout115–107
- Q441.9Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2115–107
- Q441.9Jamal Murray enters the game for Spencer Jones114–107
- Q441.9Lakers offensive team rebound114–107
- Q441.9Luka Doncic misses free throw 1 of 2114–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:52LeBron James makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotLAL 84 – 88 DEN · LAL 29% → 40% +11LAL 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q49:21Jalen Pickett makes two point shotLAL 92 – 94 DEN · DEN 46% → 55% +9DEN 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q48:27Marcus Smart makes tip shotLAL 94 – 96 DEN · LAL 35% → 44% +10LAL 35% → 44%+10 pts
- Q47:22Jaxson Hayes makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 96 – 96 DEN · LAL 43% → 54% +11LAL 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q45:10Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 104 – 96 DEN · LAL 81% → 91% +10LAL 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -3.5
- ML LAL -166 / DEN +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- LAL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.2 pts
- LAL: Elo 40.8%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -150
- DEN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 116.0 – 112.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −95 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +65 Elo | DEN 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 50.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 121.71st of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 117.020th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 120.61st of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 115.925th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.4 | Pace | 100.025th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 12–711th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 148326th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 16144th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–19 | 25–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–10 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 25–16 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–9 DEN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Mar 19DEN 108 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 65%Hit
- Mar 14LAL 126 @ DEN 131Picked DEN 88%Hit
- Feb 22LAL 123 @ DEN 100Picked DEN 68%Miss
- Nov 23DEN 127 @ LAL 102Picked LAL 60%Miss
- Apr 29LAL 106 @ DEN 108PlayoffsPicked DEN 62%Hit
- Apr 27DEN 108 @ LAL 119PlayoffsPicked DEN 53%Miss
- Apr 25DEN 112 @ LAL 105PlayoffsPicked LAL 51%Miss
- Apr 22LAL 99 @ DEN 101PlayoffsPicked DEN 56%Hit