Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints22
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds9
Lakers- Deandre AytonPoints25
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–110
- Q41.0Jamison Battle defensive rebound93–110
- Q43.0Nick Smith Jr. misses 17-foot two point shot93–110
- Q421.8A.J. Lawson makes free throw 2 of 293–110
- Q421.8A.J. Lawson makes free throw 1 of 292–110
- Q421.8Dalton Knecht shooting foul91–110
- Q430.0Nick Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot91–110
- Q441.2Dalton Knecht defensive rebound91–107
- Q444.7Garrett Temple misses 25-foot three point jumper91–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:37Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 68 – 67 LAL · TOR 40% → 50% +10TOR 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q34:36Jamal Shead makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 75 – 73 LAL · TOR 43% → 54% +11TOR 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q31:43Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)TOR 77 – 79 LAL · LAL 49% → 60% +12LAL 49% → 60%+12 pts
- Q31:24LeBron James makes 24-foot three pointerTOR 77 – 82 LAL · LAL 60% → 71% +11LAL 60% → 71%+11 pts
- Q323.3Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)TOR 79 – 87 LAL · LAL 72% → 81% +9LAL 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -2.5
- ML TOR +114 / LAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- LAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- LAL: Elo 48.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -123
- TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 112.0 – 114.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +10 | −19 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +11 Elo | TOR 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 116.515th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 117.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.817th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 116.626th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.522nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 11–815th of 30 |
| 25th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149715th of 30 |
| 19th of 301470 | Elo rating | 149214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–22 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 13–10 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–26 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–5 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.