Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Marcus SmartPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- LeBron JamesRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints25
- Caleb LoveAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–132
- Q422.3Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1116–132
- Q422.3Rayan Rupert shooting foul115–132
- Q422.3Nick Smith Jr. makes 15-foot pullup jump shot115–132
- Q436.0Yang Hansen traveling turnover113–132
- Q444.9Javonte Cooke defensive rebound113–132
- Q446.9Duop Reath blocks Drew Timme 's 1-foot driving layup113–132
- Q41:00Javonte Cooke enters the game for Caleb Love113–132
- Q41:00Rayan Rupert out of bounds lost ball turnover113–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:23Marcus Smart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)LAL 8 – 5 POR · LAL 42% → 48% +6LAL 42% → 48%+6 pts
- Q16:27Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three pointer (Toumani Camara assists)LAL 14 – 15 POR · POR 53% → 60% +7POR 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q14:17Drew Timme makes 22-foot running jump shot (Rui Hachimura assists)LAL 21 – 20 POR · LAL 38% → 45% +7LAL 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q25:42Caleb Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)LAL 45 – 53 POR · POR 69% → 76% +7POR 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q310:39Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 67 – 75 POR · LAL 16% → 23% +6LAL 16% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML LAL +130 / POR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -4.5
- POR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.8 pts
- POR: Elo 68.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- POR -140
- LAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 110.0 – 113.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −129 | −2 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +132 Elo | POR 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 115.919th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 118.424th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.4 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 11–1019th of 30 |
| 15th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15263rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Elo rating | 147017th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−129 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−2 Elo- Deni Avdija lower back tightness−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–18 | 23–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–10 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–15 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 7–2 POR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Nov 3LAL 123 @ POR 115Picked POR 76%Miss
- Oct 27POR 122 @ LAL 108Picked POR 57%Hit
- Apr 13LAL 81 @ POR 109Picked POR 65%Hit
- Feb 20LAL 110 @ POR 102Picked LAL 53%Hit
- Jan 2POR 106 @ LAL 114Picked LAL 70%Hit
- Dec 8POR 98 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 72%Hit
- Jan 21POR 110 @ LAL 134Picked LAL 73%Hit
- Nov 17LAL 107 @ POR 95Picked POR 50%Miss