Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints26
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints24
- Shaedon SharpeAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–117
- Q41.9shot clock turnover101–117
- Q425.9Caleb Love enters the game for Jerami Grant101–117
- Q425.9Rayan Rupert enters the game for Jrue Holiday101–117
- Q425.9shot clock turnover101–117
- Q448.9Jrue Holiday defensive rebound101–117
- Q451.5Onyeka Okongwu misses 26-foot three point jumper101–117
- Q41:00Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)101–117
- Q41:14Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)101–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q347.7Onyeka Okongwu makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 84 – 85 POR · ATL 39% → 51% +12ATL 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q310.6CJ McCollum makes 28-foot three point jumper (Mouhamed Gueye assists)ATL 87 – 85 POR · ATL 51% → 63% +12ATL 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q30.0Rayan Rupert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)ATL 87 – 88 POR · POR 37% → 49% +12POR 37% → 49%+12 pts
- Q411:41Rayan Rupert makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)ATL 87 – 91 POR · POR 49% → 62% +12POR 49% → 62%+12 pts
- Q410:30Caleb Love makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 89 – 96 POR · POR 63% → 74% +12POR 63% → 74%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -3.5
- ML ATL -170 / POR +142
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1
- ATL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 46.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -152
- POR +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 113.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | −9 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −41 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +25 Elo | POR 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 115.818th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 118.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −3.021st of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 111.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 114.118th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 10–1019th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15273rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301476 | Elo rating | 145720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−9 Elo- Deni Avdija lower back soreness−41 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–21 | 22–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–3 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.