Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints30
- Scottie BarnesAssists13
- Gradey DickRebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Andrew NembhardAssists6
- Pascal SiakamRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–101
- Q45.4shot clock turnover115–101
- Q429.4A.J. Lawson defensive rebound115–101
- Q429.8Jarace Walker misses two point shot115–101
- Q442.3Ethan Thompson defensive rebound115–101
- Q443.3Jonathan Mogbo misses free throw 2 of 2115–101
- Q443.3Raptors offensive team rebound115–101
- Q443.3Jonathan Mogbo misses free throw 1 of 2115–101
- Q443.3Micah Potter shooting foul115–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:35Andrew Nembhard makes driving layupTOR 100 – 96 IND · IND 18% → 28% +9IND 18% → 28%+9 pts
- Q44:37Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 103 – 96 IND · TOR 74% → 88% +13TOR 74% → 88%+13 pts
- Q44:17Johnny Furphy makes 28-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)TOR 103 – 99 IND · IND 11% → 25% +13IND 11% → 25%+13 pts
- Q43:55Brandon Ingram makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)TOR 106 – 99 IND · TOR 76% → 90% +13TOR 76% → 90%+13 pts
- Q43:22Brandon Ingram makes 22-foot running jump shot (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)TOR 109 – 99 IND · TOR 91% → 97% +6TOR 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- IND -1.5
- ML TOR -102 / IND -118
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- IND 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- IND: Elo 47.4%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- IND -107
- TOR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 109.5 – 111.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −43 | TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −29 · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.9 | Points scored | 110.828th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 118.423rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −7.627th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 107.529th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.819th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.6 | Pace | 102.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 7–1527th of 30 |
| 24th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 30 |
| 19th of 301465 | Elo rating | 142625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−28 Elo- Immanuel Quickley back spasms−29 Elo
Pacers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 16–25 | 15–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–3 IND in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Nov 26IND 95 @ TOR 97Picked TOR 76%Hit
- Nov 15TOR 129 @ IND 111Picked TOR 68%Hit
- Feb 26TOR 91 @ IND 111Picked IND 82%Hit
- Dec 3IND 111 @ TOR 122Picked IND 58%Miss
- Nov 18IND 119 @ TOR 130Picked IND 58%Miss
- Apr 9IND 140 @ TOR 123Picked IND 73%Hit
- Feb 26TOR 130 @ IND 122Picked IND 69%Miss
- Feb 14IND 127 @ TOR 125Picked IND 64%Hit