LA Clippers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints31
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints24
- Jamal SheadAssists13
- Scottie BarnesRebounds7
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game121–117
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime121–117
- OT2.4Clippers defensive team rebound121–117
- OT3.5Jamal Shead misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot121–117
- OT7.0Gradey Dick enters the game for Ochai Agbaji121–117
- OT7.0Raptors Full timeout121–117
- OT7.0Kobe Sanders makes free throw 2 of 2121–117
- OT7.0Clippers offensive team rebound120–117
- OT7.0Kobe Sanders misses free throw 1 of 2120–117
- OT7.0Brandon Ingram personal foul120–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:48Gradey Dick makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)LAC 92 – 94 TOR · TOR 47% → 62% +14TOR 47% → 62%+14 pts
- Q41:53James Harden makes 4-foot driving floating jump shotLAC 107 – 109 TOR · LAC 14% → 29% +15LAC 14% → 29%+15 pts
- OT3:06Jordan Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 116 – 111 TOR · LAC 65% → 84% +19LAC 65% → 84%+19 pts
- OT54.9Scottie Barnes makes two point shot (Brandon Ingram assists)LAC 118 – 117 TOR · TOR 13% → 36% +23TOR 13% → 36%+23 pts
- OT38.0James Harden makes 11-foot pullup jump shotLAC 120 – 117 TOR · LAC 67% → 91% +24LAC 67% → 91%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML LAC +114 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1.5
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- LAC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 105.5 – 108.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −52 | −4 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −26 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +46 Elo | TOR 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 113.923rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 112.16th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 112.420th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 110.74th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.7 | Pace | 100.523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 13–913th of 30 |
| 6th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 148227th of 30 |
| 11th of 301552 | Elo rating | 147716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−4 Elo- Immanuel Quickley back spasms−26 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–21 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20 | 16–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–1 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.