LA Clippers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints36
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints28
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–106
- Q42.1Bub Carrington bad pass
turnover (Jordan Miller steals)110–106
- Q43.5Nicolas Batum enters the game for Ivica Zubac110–106
- Q43.5Bub Carrington enters the game for Marvin Bagley III110–106
- Q43.5Tre Johnson enters the game for Jamir Watkins110–106
- Q43.5Wizards Full timeout110–106
- Q43.5James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2110–106
- Q43.5Marvin Bagley III enters the game for Bub Carrington109–106
- Q43.5James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2109–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:07Jordan Miller makes 1-foot layup (James Harden assists)LAC 103 – 100 WSH · LAC 63% → 77% +14LAC 63% → 77%+14 pts
- Q42:11Bub Carrington makes 30-foot three pointer (Khris Middleton assists)LAC 103 – 103 WSH · WSH 20% → 46% +26WSH 20% → 46%+26 pts
- Q41:06James Harden makes driving layup (Nicolas Batum assists)LAC 106 – 103 WSH · LAC 66% → 87% +20LAC 66% → 87%+20 pts
- Q457.6Khris Middleton makes free throw 3 of 3LAC 106 – 106 WSH · WSH 33% → 47% +14WSH 33% → 47%+14 pts
- Q436.9James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2LAC 107 – 106 WSH · LAC 52% → 70% +17LAC 52% → 70%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -6.5
- ML LAC -258 / WSH +210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 75.3%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -223
- WSH +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 117.0 – 110.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1311 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | −6 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | WSH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +194 Elo | LAC 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 74.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 112.725th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 123.929th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −11.230th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 108.628th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 119.429th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 103.39th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–14 | Road vs home | 6–1328th of 30 |
| 6th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 9th of 301560 | Elo rating | 131130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 16–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 5–0 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.