New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints24
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists9
- Yves MissiRebounds14
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints16
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–95
- Q420.6Yves Missi defensive rebound104–95
- Q422.9Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot turnaround jump shot104–95
- Q426.6Spurs Full timeout104–95
- Q426.6Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2104–95
- Q426.6Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2103–95
- Q426.6Stephon Castle personal take foul102–95
- Q428.6Julian Champagnie makes two point shot102–95
- Q428.6Julian Champagnie offensive rebound102–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:06Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three pointer (De'Aaron Fox assists)NO 84 – 82 SA · SA 41% → 56% +14SA 41% → 56%+14 pts
- Q47:32De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)NO 85 – 85 SA · SA 48% → 63% +15SA 48% → 63%+15 pts
- Q43:22Zion Williamson makes 1-foot running dunk (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 93 – 93 SA · NO 27% → 41% +14NO 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q42:54Trey Murphy III makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Saddiq Bey assists)NO 96 – 93 SA · NO 42% → 66% +25NO 42% → 66%+25 pts
- Q42:21Trey Murphy III makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Yves Missi assists)NO 98 – 93 SA · NO 70% → 84% +14NO 70% → 84%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -11.5
- ML NO +400 / SA -535
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -9.5
- SA 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- SA: Elo 82.6%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- SA -421
- NO +421 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 114.0 – 125.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1338 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +38 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +270 Elo | SA 82.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 83.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 83.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.1 | Points scored | 117.89th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.1 | Points allowed | 112.87th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +5.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 115.47th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 110.53rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.815th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–17 | Road vs home | 16–54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 29th of 301338 | Elo rating | 15619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–23 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 20–23 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 18–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 5–6 SA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.