Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints55
- Jaden McDanielsAssists5
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints39
- De'Aaron FoxAssists12
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–126
- Q40.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound123–126
- Q40.0Anthony Edwards misses heave jump shot123–126
- Q41.3Timberwolves defensive team rebound123–126
- Q41.3Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 2 of 2123–126
- Q41.3Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2123–126
- Q41.3Anthony Edwards personal take foul123–125
- Q41.8Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound123–125
- Q44.0Julian Champagnie misses free throw 2 of 2123–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:58Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 113 – 110 SA · MIN 47% → 71% +24MIN 47% → 71%+24 pts
- Q42:45Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)MIN 113 – 113 SA · SA 28% → 53% +25SA 28% → 53%+25 pts
- Q41:47Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 116 – 117 SA · MIN 13% → 37% +24MIN 13% → 37%+24 pts
- Q41:03Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Joan Beringer assists)MIN 119 – 118 SA · MIN 22% → 62% +39MIN 22% → 62%+39 pts
- Q453.3Victor Wembanyama makes 20-foot jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)MIN 119 – 120 SA · SA 37% → 67% +30SA 37% → 67%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -4.5
- ML MIN +164 / SA -198
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- SA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- SA: Elo 53.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -175
- MIN +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 115.0 – 119.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +26 | +36 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +23 Elo | SA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 117.510th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 112.87th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.5 | Margin | +4.87th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 115.19th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 110.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.914th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 14–55th of 30 |
| 17th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 30 |
| 4th of 301618 | Elo rating | 155411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–24 | 24–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–19 | 13–13 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 17–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–2 SA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Jan 11SA 103 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 56%Hit
- Nov 30SA 112 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Mar 9SA 124 @ MIN 141Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 29SA 110 @ MIN 112Picked MIN 67%Hit
- Dec 15MIN 106 @ SA 92Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Nov 2MIN 103 @ SA 113Picked MIN 60%Miss
- Feb 27SA 105 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 80%Hit
- Jan 27MIN 112 @ SA 113Picked MIN 71%Miss