Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints39
- Bones HylandAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints39
- Kevin DurantAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–110
- Q40.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound105–110
- Q40.0Bones Hyland misses heave jump shot105–110
- Q41.3Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2105–110
- Q41.3Rockets offensive team rebound105–109
- Q41.3Jabari Smith Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2105–109
- Q41.3Jaylen Clark enters the game for Jaden McDaniels105–109
- Q41.3Jaden McDaniels personal take foul105–109
- Q43.1Julius Randle makes 1-foot driving dunk (Naz Reid assists)105–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:46Mike Conley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 74 – 72 HOU · MIN 41% → 51% +10MIN 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q33:38Naz Reid makes 30-foot three pointerMIN 79 – 74 HOU · MIN 52% → 63% +11MIN 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q31:22Reed Sheppard makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)MIN 79 – 80 HOU · HOU 47% → 59% +12HOU 47% → 59%+12 pts
- Q411:38Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 82 – 84 HOU · HOU 50% → 63% +12HOU 50% → 63%+12 pts
- Q41:33Julius Randle makes 1-foot running dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 102 – 105 HOU · MIN 7% → 18% +11MIN 7% → 18%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML MIN +136 / HOU -162
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1.5
- HOU 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 43.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.0 – 112.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −25 | +2 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +48 Elo | MIN 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.3 | Points scored | 117.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 110.83rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.8 | Margin | +6.44th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 117.65th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 111.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.5 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 12–32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 4th of 301626 | Elo rating | 155410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–23 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–19 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–2 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.