San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints31
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Jazz- Ace BaileyPoints25
- Jusuf NurkicAssists14
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–109
- Q41.9shot clock turnover126–109
- Q425.9shot clock turnover126–109
- Q448.5Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound126–109
- Q451.0Jusuf Nurkic misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot126–109
- Q452.8Ace Bailey offensive rebound126–109
- Q455.5Victor Wembanyama blocks Brice Sensabaugh 's 4-foot driving layup126–109
- Q41:12Julian Champagnie makes running layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)126–109
- Q41:17Jusuf Nurkic bad pass
turnover (Stephon Castle steals)124–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:01Carter Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 84 – 81 UTAH · SA 70% → 79% +9SA 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q33:48Cody Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)SA 84 – 84 UTAH · UTAH 21% → 30% +9UTAH 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q32:14Isaiah Collier makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 90 – 89 UTAH · UTAH 19% → 28% +9UTAH 19% → 28%+9 pts
- Q47:39Victor Wembanyama makes 23-foot running jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)SA 104 – 99 UTAH · SA 73% → 84% +11SA 73% → 84%+11 pts
- Q44:56De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointer (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 112 – 105 UTAH · SA 83% → 92% +10SA 83% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -12.5
- ML SA -575 / UTAH +425
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -7
- SA 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- SA: Elo 75.7%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -447
- UTAH +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 125.5 – 113.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −40 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +198 Elo | SA 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 77.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 119.35th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 127.430th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 120.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.8 | Pace | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 10–1221st of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15371st of 30 |
| 8th of 301555 | Elo rating | 137927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–21 | 25–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–15 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders | 18–27 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 5–4 UTAH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Jan 19UTAH 110 @ SA 123Picked SA 87%Hit
- Dec 27UTAH 127 @ SA 114Picked SA 85%Miss
- Nov 26SA 128 @ UTAH 115Picked SA 53%Hit
- Nov 21UTAH 118 @ SA 126Picked SA 57%Hit
- Nov 9UTAH 111 @ SA 110Picked SA 69%Miss
- Oct 31SA 106 @ UTAH 88Picked SA 56%Hit
- Mar 27SA 118 @ UTAH 111Picked UTAH 59%Miss
- Feb 25SA 109 @ UTAH 128Picked UTAH 72%Hit