Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints43
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds7
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints35
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Jalen SmithRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–128
- Q40.5Coby White defensive rebound126–128
- Q41.5Keyonte George misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot126–128
- Q44.0Jazz Full timeout126–128
- Q44.0Nikola Vucevic makes layup (Tre Jones assists)126–128
- Q44.0Isaac Okoro offensive rebound126–126
- Q44.9Coby White misses 26-foot three point jumper126–126
- Q423.1Bulls Full timeout126–126
- Q428.5Brice Sensabaugh makes driving layup (Keyonte George assists)126–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q457.9Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2UTAH 124 – 124 CHI · UTAH 33% → 48% +14UTAH 33% → 48%+14 pts
- Q445.7Kevin Huerter makes free throw 1 of 2UTAH 124 – 125 CHI · CHI 52% → 68% +16CHI 52% → 68%+16 pts
- Q445.7Kevin Huerter makes free throw 2 of 2UTAH 124 – 126 CHI · CHI 68% → 81% +13CHI 68% → 81%+13 pts
- Q428.5Brice Sensabaugh makes driving layup (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 126 – 126 CHI · UTAH 14% → 48% +35UTAH 14% → 48%+35 pts
- Q44.0Nikola Vucevic makes layup (Tre Jones assists)UTAH 126 – 128 CHI · CHI 51% → >99% +49CHI 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -5.5
- ML UTAH +185 / CHI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- CHI: Elo 61.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -197
- UTAH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 117.5 – 123.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −55 | −6 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +79 Elo | CHI 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 117.212th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.9 | Points allowed | 120.826th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.8 | Margin | −3.623rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.3 | Defense rating | 116.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 104.32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 11–916th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301535 | Opponent Elo | 148723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301395 | Elo rating | 143023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–17 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–15 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–3 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.